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Candy Ride and others

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  Quote snakebite Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Candy Ride and others
    Posted: 08 Jun 2017 at 12:10pm
Just have a question as to why Candy Ride who has been a top 5 ranked sire in North America since 2013- 2014 season but has never been remotely close in the sim world. Just wondered if this is because the sim don't like his breeding line.
Just wondered if anyone else has noticed other extreme oversight's..... I do understand that some sires are tweaked from year to year but usually sires of Candy Rides ability usually have some kind of representation. The past two season's he has yet to produce a stakes winner.

I would like to see a list of the sires you all may think have been disrespected. I don't want to waste credits on sires with little sim ability in contrast to real life.
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  Quote waremblem5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jun 2017 at 12:01am
Currently the SIM is more concerned with allowing turf sires like Frankel to sire winning G1 American Races over allowing actual American Stallions to sire the winners. Dirt breeding is far, far behind turf breeding. I am so furious with the SIM right now after watching the Chestnut that I'm just going to stop here.
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  Quote sabbath Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jun 2017 at 6:29am
I did some research. I looked at all group race winners in France during the last three months of the years from 2010 to 2016. Specifically I noted in what country the horses were bred. The reason for looking at only the last months of the year is that it's less data, but still it might be possible to say something about the development over time. France was chosen randomly. This study could have been any other European track.

There has been 137 group races during the period I was looking at. The most winner (55) were bred on the British Isles (IRE/ENG/GB). During the last 3 years (2014-2016 the number of horses bred on the British Isles has increased compared to the three year period before that - from 18 to 26.

North American horses have won 47 times during the entire period. Of them 1 was bred in New York and the rest in Kentucky. For the three year period 2011-2013 there are 19 winner and during the last three years there were 15. The number of North American bred horses seem to be decreasing.

Horses bred in Australia and Japan doesn't seem to increase or decrease between the two latest three year periods. In total they score 14 and 13 respectively. The number of winners are though pretty low which makes it difficult to say anything about trends.

Turkey - which in this research is considered Oriental - has 1 group winner while continental Europe has 7 during the entire period. The continental breeds are from German (6) and France (1) - no other countries have produced a group winner during the time spam of this research.

Table: year by year plus total number of wins
KY     12     10       2       7       8       5      2      46
NY       1                                                           1
IRE      3       3      7       7       4       6      4      34
ENG    1               1        2       1       4      7      16
GB      3        1      1                                          5
GER    1        1      2                  2                       6
FR                                                           1        1
TUR    1                                                            1
JPN              2      3        1       3       2      2       13
AUS    1        2      3        2       1       2      3       14
          23     19     19     19     19     19     19     137

I also researched the real life winners of the 10 group 1 winners during the same period in France. To make it comparable I registered not were the actual horse was born, but where the sire was standing at the time of breeding activity. (Therefore a horse by Makfi was registered as GB, though that sire is currently standing in France. A Japanese tagged horse that was sired by Bernstein was considered as Kentuckian, not Japanese. Just to name few examples of how I adjusted the settings to equal those of the game.)

There were in total 70 group 1's. The British Isles had 39 winners, which was the most common tag group. Continental Europe had 27 winners and North America had 4. Australia, Japan and Turkey didn't have any real life winner, neither did any other countries.

When we compare real life tags with sim tags some pattern are visible.

Firstly, in real life it's less common with horses racing in France if they are bred far away than in real life - 5 nation tags compared to 8 (and I considering NY and KY as one and GB and ENG as one). Secondly, the British Isles impact in races in France is more visible in the sim (40%) than in real life (37%). This is though a small difference and might be explainable within statistics. The same goes for German horses. Thirdly, horses bred in France is a lot more common in real life racing (34%), than in the sim (0.7%). Fourthly, horses bred in the USA are more common in the sim (34%) than in real life (6%) racing in France.
___________________________________________________________

Of course their are oversights, but if they are caused by the sim breeders or if there are something about the programming of sire skills is something that needs a lot more research. Something that causes a difference between the real world and the sim is that sires in the game are available for breeding the first year a sire is standing in real life and the fact that the sim offsprings are born as 2yo's. (I don't think it would be good to change this though, because it would cause other problems for sim trainers.) In this process Mike has to value the sires ability without any other information than the sires racing stats and the value on the real sire market. So the first years of a sim sire career there is a risk of sires being valued less or more than in real life. As in real life some sires are under or over-valued during some parts of their career as the value is mostly based on the performance of the sire's offsprings.

So the best thing would be if more trainers started trying to find diamonds in the ruff in the sims gigantic sire pool. When looking at Candy Ride it is though obvious that he is used quite a lot, so maybe he isn't one of those undiscovered pearls. On the other hand the breeders that uses him might have a bad mare pool which is keeping his figures down. (But the odds of that being the case are slim.)

Edited by sabbath - 10 Jun 2017 at 6:44am
Multi-G1 wnrs
3: High Cozzene
2: Tete Eilert, Tete Chiron, Tete Barzio, Tete Ciryaher

Group placings: G1 (18-24-24), G2 (32-33-43), G3 (45-72-52) = more than 300
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  Quote gcliffo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jun 2017 at 9:59am
The below list may offer some insight. Mike generally does a great job, he has to deal with some unique issues like offering young sires that won't have runners for a couple of years. Yes there are some glaring rating issues but in the Sim world it is difficult, adjustments are frequently made. There are some great tools to research within the Sim that should be used when formulating matings, hope this helps.

Top sires of worldwide Group/Grade 1 races 2016
STALLION                   WINNERS-RUNNERS      WINS     RUNS     £ WIN PRIZE     £ TOTAL PRIZE
Galileo                           14-52 27%                24             132             £9,814,458      £15,857,864
Deep Impact                    10-45 22%           11               95             £10,247,074      £15,275,827
Scat Daddy                    6-14 43%                 6               29             £866,980               £1,215,754
Curlin                             5-13 38%                 8               32             £2,125,265      £3,491,634
Captain Al                             5-23 22%                 5               32             £115,132               £152,193
Tapit     5                             28 18%                 7               51             £2,258,503      £3,445,840
Dubawi                             5-33 15%                 7               61             £4,129,835      £6,878,361
Fastnet Rock                    5-36 14%                 5               72             £1,020,657      £1,875,984
Tavistock                             4-14 29%                 5               32             £1,949,375      £2,317,501
Holy Roman Emperor     4-18 22%                 5               44             £1,673,845      £2,233,577
Medaglia d´Oro             4-23 17%                 7               37             £1,913,542      £2,727,544
Wild Event                             4-25 16%                 5               48             £45,377             £80,407
Munjiz (fr)                             3-3 100%                 3                3             £83,750             £83,750
Unbridled´s Song             3-6 50%                 5               14             £3,312,925      £3,702,397
Written Tycoon                    3-6 50%                 3                8             £1,303,091      £1,308,041
Quality Road                    3-6 50%                 3               10             £367,347             £524,150
Pure Prize                             3-8 38%                 4               19             £141,658             £217,891
Invincible Spirit                    3-9 33%                 3               16             £533,547      £797,179
Seeking The Dia             3-10 30%                 3               23             £137,897         £186,948
Easing Along                    3-11 27%                 5               21             £129,591             £176,810
Not A Single Doubt             3-12 25%                 4               27             £1,065,297     £1,838,812
Choisir                             3-12 25%                 3               22             £777,465      £1,646,745
Monsun                             3-12 25%                 3               24             £2,153,612     £2,519,145
Encosta De Lago             3-13 23%                 5               38             £1,680,992     £2,040,200
Rock Of Gibraltar             3-15 20%                 3               28             £74,694             £152,244     
Savabeel                             3-16 19%                 5               35             £1,471,075     £1,958,894
Kitten´s Joy                    3-16 19%                 3               26             £872,217             £1,065,579
Teofilo                             3-18 17%                 4               45             £664,062             £2,204,331
Redoute´s Choice             3-18 17%                 3               29             £467,337      £830,897
Dynasty                             3-22 14%             3           35             £82,237             £142,544
Shamardal                    3-26 12%                 4               54             £521,589             £1,762,891
Henny Hughes                    2-2 100%             3                7             £1,478,468     £1,696,155
Union Rags                    2-4 50%                 2                7             £285,714      £341,156
Adriano                             2-4 50%                 2                7             £15,411        £16,182
Temple City                    2-5 40%                 4               10             £775,510             £935,374
Zabeel                             2-5 40%                 3               11             £1,064,951     £1,092,792
Soldier Of Fortune             2-5 40%                 2                8             £73,844             £75,280
English Channel             2-5 40%                 2               11             £235,294             £438,260
Thorn Park                    2-5 40%                 2               12             £205,061      £381,708
Cape Cross                    2-5 40%                 2               13             £199,265             £414,168
Equal Stripes                    2-6 33%                 2               11             £137,461             £170,619
Sir Percy                             2-6 33%                 2               13             £389,998      £548,853
Street Boss                    2-6 33%                 2               20             £757,572      £1,072,155
Pioneerof The Nile             2-7 29%                 3               14             £1,115,646     £1,344,861
Broken Vow                    2-7 29%                 2               11             £806,012      £899,584
City Zip                             2-7 29%                 2               14             £738,095             £968,073
Dylan Thomas                    2-7 29%                 2               18             £572,654             £979,363
Stratum                             2-8 25%                 2               19             £612,376      £718,812
Grand Daddy                    2-9 22%                 4               21             £181,947      £225,566
Ghostzapper                    2-9 22%                 2               15             £255,172      £460,025
G1 - 6
G2 - 31
G3 - 46
345 Stakes wins
Started 06/2014
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  Quote gcliffo Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jun 2017 at 10:37am
In response to your main question, IMO Unbridled's Song is a champion sire and Dam sire but as a sire of sires's VERY disappointing, none of his son'e deserve their ratings, a few that I believe should be rated at least above any UBS son's

HARD SPUN
9 G1 winners including Questing,
Wicked Strong & Hardest Core, plus
2015 G1 scorers Smooth Roller,
Hard Aces & Hard Not to Like

SUPER SAVER
17 racing: G2W INSIDE STRAIGHT,
SW STAR SUPER, GSP Hedge Fund.
'17 sales: $625K, $325K, $290, etc.
2016 #1 Cumulative Third-Crop Sire.

STREET SENSE
Champion earner of $4.4 Million
Won Breeders' Cup Juv & Ky Derby
Sire of 2015 G1 wnrs Wedding Toast,
Callback, and Street Fancy

MIDNIGHT LUTE,
Champion and MG1SW whose first 3
crops have averaged over $4.4Mill
and over $70,800 per runner.
2YOs sold for up to $900,000.

QUALITY ROAD
#1 THIRD-CROP SIRE. 2016 G1SW INCL.
KLIMT AND ILLUMINANT. TOP 2016
YEARLING SOLD FOR $400,000 AT
SARATOGA SELECT.

To name a few, I could go on


G1 - 6
G2 - 31
G3 - 46
345 Stakes wins
Started 06/2014
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  Quote waremblem5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Jun 2017 at 4:18pm
Because of sample size that list means nothing.

The SIM is not functioning as a correct representation of American racing right now. Second Year Sires IRL (first 3yos this year) like Union Rags, Bodemeister and Dialed In are rated as garbage in the SIM while Frankel (same age/class) got a boost BEFORE this season, a season in which he has already sired two dirt G1 winners in the Colt/Filly Triple Crown series. So next year 3yo Frankel's will be even better. I guess those of you who are smart (obviously not me) should just breed Frankel's this year and dominate the dirt and turf races.
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  Quote cadet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jun 2017 at 7:21am
Originally posted by waremblem5

Because of sample size that list means nothing.

The SIM is not functioning as a correct representation of American racing right now. Second Year Sires IRL (first 3yos this year) like Union Rags, Bodemeister and Dialed In are rated as garbage in the SIM while Frankel (same age/class) got a boost BEFORE this season, a season in which he has already sired two dirt G1 winners in the Colt/Filly Triple Crown series. So next year 3yo Frankel's will be even better. I guess those of you who are smart (obviously not me) should just breed Frankel's this year and dominate the dirt and turf races.


I love how people who bring research are quickly pooped on as not doing enough. Isn't Waremblem proclaiming Sir Prancelaot a better sire than Frankel based on on Year data? 🙄

Greg- nice work brining some data to the table.

Also I agree Candy Ride should be a bit better in sim, but he progeny are more fragile than UBS.
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  Quote waremblem5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jun 2017 at 8:11am
I never said Sir Prancealot was a better sire than Frankel. I said Sir P defeated Frankel for the Euro Sire Title. Again, that is a fact. Sir P will never get the monster mares that Frankel is getting.

A list of 2016 GI winners is not 'research'. It is a list of 2016 G1 winners which in itself means nothing because of SAMPLE SIZE. One of the stallions I like, Runaway and Hide just had a horse win a G1 in Singapore. Does that mean anything? Should Runaway and Hide immediately be boosted for that? (well he should, his strike rate on winners is outstandingk but you must look at everything as a whole). Look at the list, it is covered with horses who have no relevance. Did we boost Lucky Pulpit because of California Chrome? As such then, the list of G1 winners has no relevance other than to show us which sires have given us G1 winners in that particular year. Any relevance it might have is that it points out IRL that it is far easier for a lesser known/cheaper sire to get a G1 winner than it is in the SIM.
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  Quote sabbath Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Jun 2017 at 6:29am
Originally posted by waremblem5

A list of 2016 GI winners is not 'research'. It is a list of 2016 G1 winners which in itself means nothing because of SAMPLE SIZE.


Your statements (about Frankel being a major sire problem in the sim) are based on a sample size of 2 grade 1 winners' sires in the game. Is that a significant sample size?

Edited by sabbath - 16 Jun 2017 at 6:49am
Multi-G1 wnrs
3: High Cozzene
2: Tete Eilert, Tete Chiron, Tete Barzio, Tete Ciryaher

Group placings: G1 (18-24-24), G2 (32-33-43), G3 (45-72-52) = more than 300
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  Quote waremblem5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Jun 2017 at 6:03am
This year provided the two most glaring examples but no, I am using the whole sample size of Frankel's listed progeny since 2013. Frankel has 6 GI winners on the dirt and 9 GI winners on the turf. So he is getting 60% Turf GI winners and 40% Dirt GI winners. This is a sample size of 760 horses. How is Frankel (before his boost) siring so many dirt GI winners? Has he done anything IRL to suggest he is such a proficient dual surface sire? I know, I know, but but Todd he is being bred to quality dirt mares! Yah yah, so are dozens of stallions.

Now, to show you I am not biased here I'll play devil's advocate against me. Frankel DOES have a large sample size. A huge sample size in fact. I don't have the numbers but I would guess Frankel is near the top in number of horses bred during this span, after all 760 horses is a ton. His breedings and GSW % by year:

2013: 247 at 10.1
2014: 195 at 6.2
2015: 189 at 3.2
2016: 197 at 2.5
2017: 85 at 0

Our two G1 dirt winners this year are in fact the only G1 winners currently from Frankel's 3yo class. The trend shows Frankel was absurdly over-rated in season one, likely had an unpublished nerf to reduce the ridiculous 10% GSW strike rate of an unproven stallion and then started performing about how you would expect a young sire to do. Frankel was in fact largely wasted money/BPs in 2015 and 2016 if you were looking at getting a classic winning turf G1 horse. So based on this you could say Frankel deserves a buff IF his real life offspring become GI factors, which thus far they have not.
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